The top two meet in the north with the title race on the line. Viking lead the table by three points after 24 games, and Bodø / Glimt can draw level with a win at home. Both sides have also spent the autumn in European football, so the legs are heavy, but the stakes could hardly be higher.
Match context
This game is one of our free Hot Games picks. Viking are first with 59 points and a 62-23 goal record, while Bodø / Glimt are second with 56 points and a 58-21 record. The model makes the hosts clear favourites: 66% for a Bodø / Glimt win, 17% for the draw and 17% for Viking, out of 100%.
| League | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking overall | 1 | 24 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 62-23 | 59 |
| Bodø / Glimt overall | 2 | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 58-21 | 56 |
| Bodø / Glimt at home | 2 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 34-8 | 30 |
| Viking away | 2 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 18-10 | 23 |
Bodø / Glimt have won ten of twelve home games and conceded only eight goals there, although their last home match ended in a 0-1 defeat to Vålerenga. Viking are perfect at home with twelve wins, but their away record is more ordinary: seven wins, two draws and three defeats, with 18 goals scored in twelve trips.
Why the model expects a quiet first half for at least one side
The pick is At least one team will not score in the 1st half. It wins if the half-time score shows a zero for either team, so 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 2-0 at the break all count. It only loses if both teams score before half-time.
The season numbers are strong. Both teams scored in the first half in only 4 of Bodø / Glimt's 24 league games, and in just one of their twelve home games. For Viking it happened in 6 of 24, and only once in twelve away games.
The last-5 lists below cover all competitions.
| Team | Match | HT | FT | First half blank for a team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodø / Glimt | Bodø / Glimt – Vålerenga | 0-0 | 0-1 | Yes |
| Bodø / Glimt | Napoli – Bodø / Glimt | 2-1 | 4-3 | No |
| Bodø / Glimt | HamKam – Bodø / Glimt | 0-2 | 0-2 | Yes |
| Bodø / Glimt | Bodø / Glimt – Borussia Dortmund | 0-0 | 1-0 | Yes |
| Bodø / Glimt | Bodø / Glimt – Kristiansund | 1-0 | 3-1 | Yes |
| Viking | Viking – Tromsø | 3-0 | 3-1 | Yes |
| Viking | Aston Villa – Viking | 2-0 | 3-1 | Yes |
| Viking | Viking – Fredrikstad | 1-2 | 3-2 | No |
| Viking | Viking – FC Bayern München | 2-0 | 3-3 | Yes |
| Viking | Brann – Viking | 0-2 | 0-2 | Yes |
In 8 of the 10 matches above, at least one side was still at zero at half-time. Bodø / Glimt were 0-0 at the break against Vålerenga and Borussia Dortmund, led Kristiansund 1-0 and HamKam 0-2. Only the 2-1 half-time score at Napoli would have lost this bet. Viking led Tromsø 3-0, Brann 0-2 and FC Bayern München 2-0 at the break and trailed Aston Villa 2-0, so only the 1-2 half-time score against Fredrikstad went against the pick.
Bodø / Glimt also keep home first halves tight: none of their twelve home league games had three or more goals before the break, and eight of twelve had one goal or none.