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The bottom side hosts one of the title chasers. Abha are still waiting for a first league win after ten games and have only two points, while Al-Ittihad sit fourth with seven wins and a single defeat. The gap between the two teams is wide on every line of the table, and the betting market has spent the build-up pushing even further towards the visitors.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Dropping Odds picks, because the price on an Al-Ittihad win has fallen sharply since the market opened.
| League record | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abha overall | 18 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6-18 | 2 |
| Al-Ittihad overall | 4 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20-10 | 23 |
| Abha at home | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2-5 | 1 |
| Al-Ittihad away | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10-5 | 10 |
Abha have two draws and eight defeats from ten league games, with six goals scored and 18 conceded. Their home record is no refuge: one point from four matches and only two goals. Al-Ittihad have 23 points, 20 goals scored and ten conceded. On the road they have won three of five, drawn one and lost one, scoring ten times.
Why we back Al-Ittihad to win (Away team win)
The selection is a straight win for the visitors in regular time. A draw or an Abha win loses the bet.
How the 1X2 odds moved
| Reading | 1 (Abha) | X (Draw) | 2 (Al-Ittihad) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.67 |
| Latest | 5.50 | 4.10 | 1.45 |
Every part of the market has moved in the same direction. Al-Ittihad shortened from 1.67 to 1.45, while Abha drifted from 4.00 to 5.50 and the draw lengthened from 3.70 to 4.10. When both alternatives get longer at the same time as the favourite gets shorter, the money is clearly going one way. The move has not changed the picture, it has strengthened it: the visitors were already favourites at the opening price.
The league numbers explain why. Abha average well under one goal per game and have scored just twice in four home matches, so Al-Ittihad's defence, which has conceded ten in ten, should not be stretched often. At the other end, a team that concedes almost two goals per game faces an attack that has scored 20 in ten, including ten away from home.
The case against comes from Abha's ability to frustrate. In all competitions, they held Al-Kholood and Al Faisaly to goalless draws at home within the last month, and Al-Ittihad themselves have drawn 0-0 twice in their last five.
Recent form and half-time scores
The last-five lists below cover all competitions, not only the league.
| Match | HT | FT |
|---|---|---|
| Abha vs Al Faisaly | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Neom SC vs Abha | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Abha vs Al-Kholood | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Al-Qadsiah vs Abha | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Abha vs Al Faisaly | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Neftchi Fergana vs Al-Ittihad | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Al-Ittihad vs Diriyah | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Al-Ittihad vs Al-Shabab | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Abha have not won any of these five and scored a single goal across them, in the 2-1 defeat at Al-Qadsiah. They did not lead at half-time in any of the five, and their latest game was a 0-1 home defeat to Al Faisaly after a goalless first half. Al-Ittihad are unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws, eight goals scored and two conceded. Their most recent outing was a 2-1 win away to Neftchi Fergana on October 26, after it was level at the break.
