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Abha and Al Faisaly meet at the wrong end of the table. Abha are bottom without a league win in nine games, while Al Faisaly sit 15th with a single victory from ten. Both defences have been leaking goals, and the market has spent the build-up rethinking which of the two strugglers deserves to be favoured.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Dropping Odds picks, because the 1X2 prices have moved clearly since the market opened.
| League record | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abha overall | 18 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6-17 | 2 |
| Al Faisaly overall | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11-20 | 7 |
| Abha at home | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-4 | 1 |
| Al Faisaly away | 16 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5-9 | 2 |
Abha have collected two points from nine league games, with two draws, seven defeats and a goal record of 6-17. At home they have taken one point from three matches. Al Faisaly are only slightly better on seven points: one win, four draws and five defeats, with 11 scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have drawn two and lost two of four, conceding nine times.
Why we back either team to win (12 - Double Chance)
The selection wins if either side wins and loses only on a draw. When the market opened, Abha were favourites at 2.15, with the draw at 3.20 and Al Faisaly at 2.90.
How the 1X2 odds moved
| Reading | 1 (Abha) | X (Draw) | 2 (Al Faisaly) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 2.15 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| First snapshot | 2.31 | 3.31 | 2.71 |
| Latest | 2.46 | 3.21 | 2.56 |
The odds drop on this game came on the Al Faisaly side. Their win price shortened from 2.90 to 2.71 and then to 2.56, while Abha drifted from 2.15 to 2.46. The two teams are now close to level in the betting. The draw has barely moved, from 3.20 to 3.21, and remains the longest of the three prices, so bookmakers still rate a winner as the more likely outcome. The two win prices of 2.46 and 2.56 combine to roughly the 1.25 available on this selection.
The league numbers point the same way. Seven of Abha's nine league games have produced a winner, every time for the opponent, and six of Al Faisaly's ten have done the same. Between them, 13 of their 19 league matches have had a winner. Al Faisaly's games have also been open: 31 goals in ten matches, and four of their last five fixtures in all competitions produced at least three goals.
The case against is Abha's recent tightening. A side that concedes almost two goals per league game has suddenly kept things goalless, and that is the scenario this bet cannot afford.
Recent form and half-time scores
The last-five lists below cover all competitions, not only the league, and the October 11 meeting between these two sides appears in both.
| Match | HT | FT |
|---|---|---|
| Neom SC vs Abha | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Abha vs Al-Kholood | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Al-Qadsiah vs Abha | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Abha vs Al Faisaly | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Diriyah vs Abha | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Al Faisaly vs Al-Nassr | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Al-Shabab vs Al Faisaly | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Al Faisaly vs Al-Kholood | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Abha vs Al Faisaly | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Al Faisaly vs Al-Ittihad | 0-2 | 1-3 |
Abha drew three of their last five, all 0-0, and did not lead at half-time in any of the five. Their two defeats came against Neom SC and Al-Qadsiah, both after trailing at the break. Al Faisaly's recent games have been far livelier: a 3-2 win over Al-Kholood, a 2-2 draw with Al-Shabab and two 1-3 defeats against Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad.
