Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips (October 28, 2026)

Liverpool host Chelsea in a knockout tie between two sides whose recent matches have told very different stories before and after the break. Liverpool arrive on a run of four straight wins, while Chelsea have been goalless at half-time in three of their last five games. The key question here is how much happens before the break.

Cup context

This is one of our free Hot Games picks. The reading comes from recent form, the half-time scores and the model's result split. The model leans towards the hosts without making them heavy favourites: 47% for a Liverpool win, 22% for the draw and 30% for Chelsea.

Liverpool's last five, across all competitions, read W W W W L. They beat Brighton & Hove Albion 2-0 at home, edged Villarreal 4-3, came from behind to win 1-2 at Brentford and scored six at LASK, before which they had lost 0-3 at home to Manchester City. Chelsea's last five read L W W L D: a 0-2 home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, a 0-2 win at Everton, a 5-1 home win over AFC Bournemouth, a 3-0 loss at Brentford and a 2-2 draw with Hull City.

Why the model expects a quiet first half for at least one side

The pick is At least one team will not score in the 1st half. It wins if the half-time score shows a zero for either team, so 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 2-0 at the break all count. It only loses if both Liverpool and Chelsea score before half-time.

The trend behind it comes from Chelsea's record in this competition: at least one team failed to score by half-time in 15 of Chelsea's matches in this cup. The last five games of both teams point the same way.

The last-5 lists below cover all competitions.

In 8 of the 10 matches above, at least one side was still at zero at half-time. Chelsea are the clearest case. Three of their last five games were 0-0 at the break, against Tottenham Hotspur, Everton and Brentford, and they scored in the first half only twice, against AFC Bournemouth and Hull City. They also kept a clean first half in four of those five games, conceding before the break only against Hull City.

Liverpool's matches have been livelier early, yet four of their five still fit the pick. They led Brighton & Hove Albion 2-0 and LASK 0-3 without conceding, trailed 1-0 at Brentford, and were level at 0-0 with Manchester City. Only the 2-2 half-time score against Villarreal would have lost this bet.

A second pattern supports it: most goals in these games came after the break. Liverpool's last five produced 24 goals, only 10 of them in the first half. Chelsea's produced 17, with just 5 before half-time.

What could invalidate this prediction?

The bet loses only if both teams score in the first half, and a few realistic scenarios could bring that about.

• A fast Liverpool start: Liverpool scored in the first half in three of their last five, including two goals against Brighton & Hove Albion and three at LASK.
• An open first half like Villarreal: Liverpool were 2-2 at the break in that game, and Chelsea were 1-2 down at half-time against Hull City.
• Chelsea's attacking days: they had two goals by half-time against AFC Bournemouth, so their blank first halves are a tendency rather than a rule.
• A cup tie with something at stake: knockout football can push both sides forward early, and the model gives Chelsea a 30% chance of winning, so they are expected to compete.

Before betting, compare the bookmaker's price with the model's fair odds.

Final verdict

Chelsea's habit of blank first halves, with three 0-0 half-times in their last five, and the fact that 8 of the last 10 matches involving these teams had a team at zero by the break, make At least one team will not score in the 1st half the model's preferred angle. The main risk is Liverpool's early scoring combined with a Chelsea goal on one of their sharper days. Keep stakes modest and in line with your bankroll. Betting is for adults only (18+): gamble responsibly and never stake money you cannot afford to lose.

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FAQ

What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

The model's preferred market is At least one team will not score in the 1st half, backed by Chelsea's three 0-0 half-times in their last five games and the low number of first-half goals in both teams' recent matches.

How does this first-half bet settle?

Only the score at half-time counts. The bet wins if Liverpool or Chelsea, or both, have not scored by the break, for example 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1. It loses if both teams score in the first half, such as 1-1 or 2-1. What happens after half-time does not matter.

What odds are worth taking on this bet?

The model's fair odds are 1.30. A bookmaker price above 1.30 offers value against the model's estimate, while anything below is shorter than the model considers fair.