Português 
Italiano 
Ελληνικά 
Polski 
Français 
Русский 
Balkanski 
Türkçe 
Español 
Deutsch 
Werder Bremen host TSG Hoffenheim at the Weserstadion with both clubs sitting in the crowded middle of the Bundesliga table. Bremen are unbeaten at home, while Hoffenheim arrive after a busy run.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Hot Games picks. After seven rounds, Bremen have 12 points from three wins, three draws and one defeat, with a 15-14 goal record. Hoffenheim have 9 points from three wins and four defeats, scoring 14 and conceding 14. Despite the table, the model leans slightly towards the visitors: 33% for a Werder Bremen win, 24% for the draw and 43% for Hoffenheim, out of 100%.
| Table | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen overall | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15-14 | 12 |
| TSG Hoffenheim overall | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14-14 | 9 |
| Werder Bremen home | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8-5 | 7 |
| TSG Hoffenheim away | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5-7 | 3 |
Bremen have two wins and a draw from three home games, scoring eight and conceding five. Hoffenheim have won one of three away matches and lost the other two, with five goals scored and seven conceded. Both sides play open football: every Bremen league match this season has had at least two goals, and every Hoffenheim league match has had at least three.
Why the model expects one team to be blank at half-time
The pick is At least one team will not score in the 1st half. It wins if the half-time score shows a zero for either side, so 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 2-0 all count. It only loses if both teams score before the break.
These teams score plenty, but mostly after the interval. Both teams scored in the first half in just one of Bremen's seven league games, and in none of their three home games. The pattern is the same for Hoffenheim: one of seven overall, and none of their three away games.
The second half tells the opposite story. Both teams scored after the break in five of Bremen's seven league games and in six of Hoffenheim's seven.
The last five below cover all competitions.
| Team | Match | HT | FT | A team blank at HT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen | 2-0 | 3-2 | Yes |
| Werder Bremen | FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen | 1-2 | 2-3 | No |
| Werder Bremen | Werder Bremen – Paderborn | 0-2 | 2-2 | Yes |
| Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen | 0-0 | 2-2 | Yes |
| Werder Bremen | Werder Bremen – FC Augsburg | 0-1 | 3-2 | Yes |
| TSG Hoffenheim | Holstein Kiel – TSG Hoffenheim | 1-1 | 1-1 | No |
| TSG Hoffenheim | TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0-0 | 3-0 | Yes |
| TSG Hoffenheim | TSG Hoffenheim – Olympique Lyonnais | 1-0 | 3-0 | Yes |
| TSG Hoffenheim | Borussia Mönchengladbach – TSG Hoffenheim | 0-1 | 1-2 | Yes |
| TSG Hoffenheim | TSG Hoffenheim – Beşiktaş | 0-0 | 2-3 | Yes |
In 8 of the 10 matches above, at least one team was still on zero at half-time. Bremen were 2-0 down at Borussia Dortmund, 0-2 down at home to Paderborn, 0-0 at Dortmund earlier in the month and 0-1 down to FC Augsburg; only the 1-2 lead at FSV Mainz 05 would have lost this bet. Hoffenheim were 0-0 at the break against Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Beşiktaş, 1-0 up on Olympique Lyonnais and 0-1 up at Borussia Mönchengladbach, so only the 1-1 at Holstein Kiel went against the pick.
