Português 
Italiano 
Ελληνικά 
Polski 
Français 
Русский 
Balkanski 
Türkçe 
Español 
Deutsch 
Ascoli and Sampdoria sit at opposite ends of the table. Ascoli have lost only one of eight league games and conceded just six goals, while Sampdoria have won once all season, conceded 16 and are still looking for their first away win. The gap between them is ten points, and the home side arrive after a 6-1 win at Catanzaro.
Match context
This game is part of our free Hot Games selection. Ascoli are fourth with 15 points, Sampdoria 19th with five. The model's 1X2 split leans clearly towards the hosts: 52% for an Ascoli win, 28% for the draw and 20% for Sampdoria, out of 100%.
| League | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli overall | 4 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14-6 | 15 |
| Sampdoria overall | 19 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8-16 | 5 |
| Ascoli at home | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6-3 | 8 |
| Sampdoria away | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4-11 | 2 |
Ascoli are unbeaten at home, with two wins and two draws and a 6-3 goal record. Their away form is, if anything, stronger, with 8 goals scored in four trips. Sampdoria are 18th in the away table: two draws, three defeats and 11 goals conceded in five games, which is more than two per match.
Why the model backs Ascoli or the draw
The selection is 1X - Double Chance, which covers an Ascoli win and a draw, so only a Sampdoria victory beats it.
The strongest trend belongs to the hosts: Ascoli have won 10 of their last 12 home matches. Their current league record backs it up, with a single defeat in eight games and only 0.75 goals conceded per match. Sampdoria, by contrast, have collected five points from eight games and have not won any of their five away fixtures.
The figures that question the selection are about Ascoli's finishing at home rather than their defence. They have scored six goals in four home games, only 1.5 per match, and drew two of those four. A goal was scored before half-time in only two of their four home games, so Ascoli do not always start fast. Sampdoria also find the net regularly: both teams scored in seven of Sampdoria's eight league games and in four of their five away trips. The draw protection matters here, because a tight, low-margin game is a realistic script.
Recent form and half-time scores
The last-five lists below include all competitions.
| Team | Match | HT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | Catanzaro – Ascoli | 1-4 | 1-6 |
| Ascoli | Ascoli – Empoli | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Ascoli | Südtirol – Ascoli | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ascoli | Ascoli – Avellino | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Ascoli | Calcio Padova – Ascoli | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Sampdoria | Südtirol – Sampdoria | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Sampdoria | Sampdoria – Arezzo | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Sampdoria | Avellino – Sampdoria | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Sampdoria | Sampdoria – Catanzaro | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Sampdoria | Mantova – Sampdoria | 0-0 | 2-0 |
Ascoli are unbeaten in four since the 1-0 defeat at Calcio Padova, scoring 10 and conceding four across the five games. Sampdoria have one win in five, with five goals scored and ten conceded. Three opponents appear on both lists, and the comparison favours Ascoli each time. Against Catanzaro, Ascoli won 6-1 away while Sampdoria won 2-1 at home. Against Avellino, Ascoli won 3-1 at home while Sampdoria lost 4-1 away. Against Südtirol, both drew on the road, Ascoli 0-0 and Sampdoria 1-1.
The half-time scores add a note of caution. Ascoli trailed Avellino 0-1 at the break before winning 3-1, and Sampdoria led at Südtirol before being pegged back. Sampdoria also came from behind against Catanzaro, so a first-half goal for either side does not settle much.
