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A side chasing the top places hosts a team sitting in the lower half of the table. Varbergs BoIS have the stronger squad record by a distance this season, but they arrive on a run of level results, while Ljungskile SK have become hard to beat in recent weeks.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Dropping Odds picks. If you want to see which matches are drawing the most attention across the board, our Hot Games page collects them in one place.
| League record | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varberg overall | 4 | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 46-35 | 47 |
| Ljungskile overall | 12 | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 35-40 | 30 |
| Varberg at home | 4 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 23-16 | 26 |
| Ljungskile away | 12 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 19-19 | 14 |
After 28 rounds Varberg are fourth with 47 points from 13 wins, eight draws and seven defeats, scoring 46 and conceding 35. Ljungskile are twelfth with 30 points from seven wins, nine draws and 12 defeats, with a goal difference of 35-40. The gap is 17 points. At home Varberg have won eight of 14, drawn only two and lost four. Ljungskile have won just two of 14 on the road, but they have drawn eight of those trips and lost only four.
Why we back a winner either way (12 - Double Chance)
The 12 double chance wins if either team wins in regular time. Only a draw loses.
How the 1X2 odds moved
| Reading | 1 (Varberg) | X (Draw) | 2 (Ljungskile) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| Latest | 2.02 | 3.42 | 3.12 |
The headline drop is on the away price, not on the 12 line. Ljungskile shortened from 3.70 to 3.12, while Varberg drifted from 1.80 to 2.02. The draw also shortened a little, from 3.50 to 3.42. Combining the two win prices, the 12 line stood at roughly 1.21 at the opening and about 1.23 now, so it has actually lengthened slightly. In short, the market did not move towards a no-draw outcome. It moved away from Varberg, and part of that money went to the draw.
So the case for this pick does not come from the odds movement. It comes from the venue and the table. Varberg have finished level in only two of their 14 home league games, and they have won eight of them. A 17-point gap between the sides is also hard to ignore.
Recent form and half-time scores
The last-five lists below cover all competitions, not only the league.
| Match | HT | FT |
|---|---|---|
| Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Varbergs BoIS vs Helsingborgs IF | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Östersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Varbergs BoIS vs Kalmar FF | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Varbergs BoIS vs IK Brage | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Helsingborgs IF vs Ljungskile SK | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Ljungskile SK vs IK Brage | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Örebro SK vs Ljungskile SK | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| GIF Sundsvall vs Ljungskile SK | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF | 0-1 | 0-2 |
This is where the pick faces its biggest test. Varberg have drawn their last four, including goalless home games against Helsingborgs IF and Kalmar FF, and have scored only five goals in five matches. Their last win was a 3-2 comeback against IK Brage after trailing at half-time. Ljungskile are unbeaten in three, with a 2-0 home win over IK Brage between draws at Helsingborgs IF and Örebro SK. Before that, they lost 3-2 at GIF Sundsvall despite leading 2-0 at the break, then lost 0-2 at home to Falkenbergs FF.
