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FC Emmen host FC Den Bosch with both sides arriving unbeaten in their last five matches. Emmen are pushing near the top of the Eerste Divisie, while Den Bosch sit in mid-table and have struggled badly away from home.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Hot Games picks. After twelve rounds, Emmen are 4th with 25 points from eight wins, one draw and three defeats, and a 26-19 goal record. Den Bosch are 13th with 15 points from four wins, three draws and five defeats, scoring 18 and conceding 21. The model makes the hosts clear favourites: 57% for an FC Emmen win, 20% for the draw and 23% for Den Bosch, out of 100%.
| Table | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen overall | 4 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 26-19 | 25 |
| FC Den Bosch overall | 13 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 18-21 | 15 |
| FC Emmen home | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13-7 | 15 |
| FC Den Bosch away | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4-9 | 3 |
Emmen have won five of six home games, scoring 13 and conceding seven. Den Bosch are a different side on the road: one win and four defeats in five away games, with only four goals scored.
Why the model expects one team to be blank at half-time
The pick is At least one team will not score in the 1st half. It wins if the half-time score shows a zero for either side, so 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 2-0 all count. It only loses if both teams score before the break.
The season numbers back it strongly. Both teams scored in the first half in just two of Emmen's twelve league games, and only once in six home games. Den Bosch also have two in twelve, and none at all in their five away games.
The first halves involved are usually tight. None of Emmen's six home games had three or more goals before the break, and all five of Den Bosch's away games had at most one first-half goal.
The last five below cover all competitions.
| Team | Match | HT | FT | A team blank at HT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen | FC Groningen – FC Emmen | 0-1 | 0-2 | Yes |
| FC Emmen | Vitesse – FC Emmen | 0-0 | 0-2 | Yes |
| FC Emmen | FC Emmen – Almere City | 2-0 | 2-1 | Yes |
| FC Emmen | FC Dordrecht – FC Emmen | 0-2 | 0-3 | Yes |
| FC Emmen | RKC Waalwijk – FC Emmen | 1-0 | 1-1 | Yes |
| FC Den Bosch | Rijnsburgse Boys – FC Den Bosch | 1-1 | 3-5 | No |
| FC Den Bosch | FC Den Bosch – MVV Maastricht | 1-0 | 2-2 | Yes |
| FC Den Bosch | FC Den Bosch – TOP Oss | 2-0 | 2-1 | Yes |
| FC Den Bosch | Jong AZ – FC Den Bosch | 0-1 | 0-1 | Yes |
| FC Den Bosch | FC Den Bosch – FC Dordrecht | 0-0 | 1-1 | Yes |
In 9 of the 10 matches above, at least one team was still on zero at half-time. Emmen led 0-1 at FC Groningen, 2-0 against Almere City and 0-2 at FC Dordrecht, were 0-0 at Vitesse and trailed 1-0 at RKC Waalwijk, so all five of their recent first halves fit the pick. Den Bosch led 1-0 against MVV Maastricht, 2-0 against TOP Oss and 0-1 at Jong AZ, and were 0-0 with FC Dordrecht. Only the 1-1 at Rijnsburgse Boys would have lost this bet.
