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RB Leipzig welcome Manchester City in a game that brings together two teams whose recent matches have rarely been quiet. Leipzig have won their last three after two heavy defeats, while City have won only one of their last three but keep finding goals at both ends.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Hot Games picks. After three rounds of the league phase Leipzig are 28th with 3 points from one win and two defeats, with a goal record of 3-8. City are 12th with 6 points from two wins and one defeat, scoring nine and conceding five. Despite the gap in the table, the model gives the hosts a small edge: 43% for a Leipzig win, 21% for a draw and 36% for City, out of 100%.
| Table | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig overall | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3-8 | 3 |
| Manchester City overall | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9-5 | 6 |
| RB Leipzig home | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1-0 | 3 |
| Manchester City away | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2-0 | 3 |
Leipzig's only home game in the competition was a 1-0 win, but their two away trips ended in defeat with two goals scored and eight conceded. City won one of their two home games with a 7-5 aggregate across them, and won their only away game 2-0.
Why the model expects goals
The pick is Over 2.5 goals. It wins if the match produces three or more goals in total, whoever scores them, so results such as 2-1, 3-0 or 2-2 all land. It loses with two goals or fewer.
The competition numbers back it up. Two of Leipzig's three games went over 2.5 goals, and so did two of City's three. Both teams also went over 3.5 goals in two of their three games, and both teams scored in two of three for each side. City's two home games both had at least three goals, as did both of Leipzig's away games.
The recent form adds to that. Leipzig conceded ten goals in two matches before their current run, losing 4-1 at Real Madrid and 6-1 at FC Bayern München, and then beat Elversberg 4-0. City lost 2-1 at Aston Villa, drew 2-2 with Brighton & Hove Albion, beat AEK Athens 5-1 and Ipswich Town 3-2.
The last five below cover all competitions.
| Team | Match | HT | FT | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | Schalke 04 – RB Leipzig | 0-1 | 0-2 | No |
| RB Leipzig | Rot-Weiss Essen – RB Leipzig | 1-0 | 1-2 | Yes |
| RB Leipzig | RB Leipzig – Elversberg | 0-0 | 4-0 | Yes |
| RB Leipzig | Real Madrid – RB Leipzig | 1-0 | 4-1 | Yes |
| RB Leipzig | FC Bayern München – RB Leipzig | 3-0 | 6-1 | Yes |
| Manchester City | Manchester City – Brighton & Hove Albion | 0-1 | 0-1 | No |
| Manchester City | Manchester City – Brighton & Hove Albion | 1-1 | 2-2 | Yes |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa – Manchester City | 1-0 | 2-1 | Yes |
| Manchester City | Manchester City – AEK Athens | 2-0 | 5-1 | Yes |
| Manchester City | Manchester City – Ipswich Town | 2-1 | 3-2 | Yes |
Eight of the 10 matches above finished with three goals or more: four of five for each team. The only exceptions were Leipzig's 0-2 win at Schalke 04 and City's 0-1 home defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion. The trend line on the pick says City went over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches. The five most recent City matches we can check show 4 of 5, which fits that picture, but the full nine cannot be confirmed here.
