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Manchester United host Roma. United have lost four of their last five matches and scored only twice in that run, while Roma are unbeaten in five and have scored 18 goals along the way.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Hot Games picks. After three rounds of the league phase United are 21st with 3 points from one win and two defeats, with a goal record of 5-6. Roma are 15th with 4 points from a win, a draw and a defeat, scoring eight and conceding five. The model leans slightly towards the visitors: 40% for a Roma win, 24% for a draw and 36% for United, out of 100%.
| Table | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United overall | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5-6 | 3 |
| Roma overall | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8-5 | 4 |
| Manchester United home | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4-0 | 3 |
| Roma away | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1 |
United's only home game in the competition so far was a 4-0 win, but their two away trips both ended in defeat with one goal scored and six conceded. Roma won one of their two home games and drew their only away game 1-1.
Why the model expects a blank at half-time
The pick is At least one team will not score in the 1st half. It wins if the half-time score shows a zero for either side, so 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 2-0 all land. It only loses if both teams score before the break.
The competition numbers point the same way. Both teams have not scored in the first half in any of United's three games, and it has happened in only one of Roma's three. Roma's away game had fewer than two first-half goals, and none of their three games had more than two goals before the break.
The bigger story is United's lack of early goals. In four of their last five matches they had not scored by half-time: 0-0 at Chelsea, 0-2 at home to AFC Bournemouth, 1-0 down at Como and 1-0 down at Atlético de Madrid. The exception was a 0-1 lead at Leeds United.
The last five below cover all competitions.
| Team | Match | HT | FT | One team blank in 1st half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | Chelsea – Manchester United | 0-0 | 2-0 | Yes |
| Manchester United | Manchester United – AFC Bournemouth | 0-2 | 0-3 | Yes |
| Manchester United | Como – Manchester United | 1-0 | 4-1 | Yes |
| Manchester United | Leeds United – Manchester United | 0-1 | 1-1 | Yes |
| Manchester United | Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United | 1-0 | 2-0 | Yes |
| Roma | Udinese – Roma | 0-4 | 2-5 | Yes |
| Roma | Roma – Cagliari | 2-1 | 4-2 | No |
| Roma | Napoli – Roma | 1-0 | 3-3 | Yes |
| Roma | Roma – Slovan Bratislava | 2-0 | 4-0 | Yes |
| Roma | Roma – Genoa | 0-0 | 2-0 | Yes |
In 9 of the 10 matches above, at least one team was still on zero at half-time. United were blank or kept the opponent blank in all five of their recent first halves. Roma led 0-4 at Udinese and 2-0 against Slovan Bratislava, trailed 1-0 at Napoli and were level at 0-0 with Genoa. Only Roma's 2-1 half-time lead against Cagliari would have lost. That is well above the 65% in the trend line. Only two of those ten first halves ended 0-0, so the trend describes one side failing to score rather than both.
