Português 
Italiano 
Ελληνικά 
Polski 
Français 
Русский 
Balkanski 
Türkçe 
Español 
Deutsch 
Jong Ajax host Vitesse on Monday evening with the two sides heading in opposite directions in the table. Jong Ajax sit near the bottom of the table and have a poor home record, while Vitesse are in mid-table and have been far more solid on the road.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Hot Games picks. After twelve rounds Jong Ajax are 17th with 12 points from three wins, three draws and six defeats, and they have conceded 29 goals while scoring 18. Vitesse are 10th with 17 points from five wins, two draws and five defeats, with a goal record of 16-17. The model makes the visitors favourites: 47% for a Vitesse win, 24% for a draw and 29% for Jong Ajax, out of 100%.
| Table | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax overall | 17 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18-29 | 12 |
| Vitesse overall | 10 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 16-17 | 17 |
| Jong Ajax home | 18 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9-14 | 7 |
| Vitesse away | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8-7 | 9 |
Jong Ajax have taken only seven points from six home games, with two wins and three defeats, and they rank 18th on the home table. Vitesse have won three of their six away games and conceded just seven goals on the road, which puts them 7th on the away table.
Why the model expects a blank at half-time
The pick is At least one team will not score in the 1st half. It wins if the half-time score shows a zero for either side, so 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 2-0 all land. It only loses if both teams score before the break.
The season numbers back it. Vitesse have seen both teams score in the first half in only three of their twelve league games, and in just one of their six away games. Jong Ajax are at four of twelve overall. Ten of the twelve Vitesse league games had fewer than three goals before the break.
The young Ajax side often fall behind early rather than trade goals. In four of their last five matches they had not scored by half-time, trailing 0-2 at TOP Oss, 0-1 against VVV-Venlo and 3-0 at Jong FC Utrecht, and sitting at 0-0 with Roda JC Kerkrade.
The last five below cover all competitions.
| Team | Match | HT | FT | One team blank in 1st half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | TOP Oss – Jong Ajax | 0-2 | 3-3 | Yes |
| Jong Ajax | Jong Ajax – De Graafschap | 1-1 | 2-1 | No |
| Jong Ajax | Jong Ajax – VVV-Venlo | 0-1 | 0-3 | Yes |
| Jong Ajax | Jong Ajax – Roda JC Kerkrade | 0-0 | 0-0 | Yes |
| Jong Ajax | Jong FC Utrecht – Jong Ajax | 3-0 | 6-1 | Yes |
| Vitesse | VVV-Venlo – Vitesse | 0-2 | 0-2 | Yes |
| Vitesse | Vitesse – FC Emmen | 0-0 | 0-2 | Yes |
| Vitesse | FC Eindhoven – Vitesse | 0-1 | 0-1 | Yes |
| Vitesse | FC Volendam – Vitesse | 1-0 | 2-0 | Yes |
| Vitesse | Vitesse – NAC Breda | 1-2 | 2-2 | No |
In 8 of the 10 matches above, at least one team was still on zero at half-time. Vitesse led 0-2 at VVV-Venlo and 0-1 at FC Eindhoven, were level at 0-0 against FC Emmen and trailed 1-0 at FC Volendam. Only two first halves would have lost: Jong Ajax 1-1 De Graafschap and Vitesse 1-2 NAC Breda. The trend line on the pick says more than 65%, and the real count of 8 of 10 is consistent with that.
