Frosinone arrive four points and five places ahead of Atalanta after seven league games each, 13 points to 9, yet venue tells a different story. Atalanta have won three of their four home league games and lost all three away, while Frosinone have taken points from two of their three trips.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Hot Games picks. Frosinone sit 6th and Atalanta 11th, but the venue tables reverse the picture: Atalanta rank 6th on home results and 17th on away results, while Frosinone are 10th in the away table. The model's 1X2 split reflects that home edge and makes the hosts favourites, with 53 for an Atalanta win, 22 for the draw and 25 for Frosinone, out of 100.
| Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta (overall) | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10-11 | 9 |
| Frosinone (overall) | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13-9 | 13 |
| Atalanta (home) | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7-4 | 9 |
| Frosinone (away) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4-4 | 4 |
Seven of Atalanta's ten league goals have come at home, where they have conceded only four times. Frosinone's away games have been level, four scored and four conceded.
Why the model backs no goals at both ends before half-time
The selection wins as long as both teams have not scored by the interval. Over Atalanta's last 40 matches, at least one team failed to score before half-time in 36, so only four of those first halves had goals at both ends.
This season's league numbers agree, and the bet does not need a quiet first half. Every Frosinone league game has produced a first-half goal, with two or more in five of seven, yet both teams scored before the break only once. First halves involving these clubs tend to be one-sided rather than goalless.
| League games this season | Atalanta | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Both teams scored in the 1st half | 2/7 | 1/7 |
| Same, Atalanta home / Frosinone away | 2/4 | 0/3 |
| At least one 1st-half goal | 5/7 | 7/7 |
| Two or more 1st-half goals | 3/7 | 5/7 |
| Both teams scored, full match | 5/7 | 3/7 |
At least one team was blank at the break in five of Atalanta's seven league games and in six of Frosinone's seven, and none of Frosinone's three away games had goals at both ends before half-time. In three of the five Atalanta league games where both sides eventually scored, one was still waiting at the interval.
Recent form and half-time scores
The last-five lists cover all competitions, not only the league. Atalanta's include European games against Ajax and Pafos FC.
| Team | Match | HT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | Ajax – Atalanta | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Atalanta | AC Milan – Atalanta | 2-0 | 3-2 |
| Atalanta | Atalanta – Pafos FC | 3-0 | 3-1 |
| Atalanta | Atalanta – Venezia | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Atalanta | Juventus – Atalanta | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Frosinone | Frosinone – Sassuolo | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Frosinone | Napoli – Frosinone | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| Frosinone | Frosinone – Benevento | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Frosinone | Frosinone – Como | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Frosinone | Genoa – Frosinone | 0-1 | 1-1 |
Eight of these ten first halves ended with at least one team still blank, even though they produced 22 goals between them. Atalanta scored before the break only in their two home games, against Pafos FC and Venezia. For Frosinone, the 3-2 half-time against Sassuolo was the only first half in their five with goals at both ends, and their sole away first-half goal came at Genoa, who had not scored by the interval.