Português 
Italiano 
Ελληνικά 
Polski 
Français 
Русский 
Balkanski 
Türkçe 
Español 
Deutsch 
The league leaders travel to a side in the middle of the table, and the gap between them has rarely looked wider. HJK arrive in free-scoring form, while VPS have struggled badly in front of goal. The two met only a few weeks ago, and that result still frames this fixture.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Dropping Odds picks. If you want to see which matches are drawing the most attention across the board, our Hot Games page collects them in one place.
| League record | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPS overall | 6 | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 31-34 | 40 |
| HJK overall | 1 | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 59-36 | 55 |
| VPS at home | 4 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 20-14 | 24 |
| HJK away | 3 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 27-19 | 25 |
After 30 games HJK top the table with 55 points from 16 wins, seven draws and seven defeats. Their 59 goals are the standout number, 28 more than VPS have scored. VPS are sixth with 40 points from 11 wins, seven draws and 12 defeats, and their goal difference is slightly negative at 31-34. The home record is the strongest part of the VPS season: seven wins, three draws and five defeats, with only 14 goals conceded in 15 games. HJK, though, have also travelled well, winning seven of 15 away games and scoring 27 goals on the road.
Why we back HJK (Away team win)
This bet wins only if HJK win in regular time. A draw or a VPS win loses.
How the 1X2 odds moved
| Reading | 1 (VPS) | X (Draw) | 2 (HJK) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 7.50 | 4.33 | 1.36 |
| Latest | 9.50 | 5.00 | 1.25 |
This time the drop really is on the price we are backing. HJK shortened from 1.36 to 1.25, while VPS drifted from 7.50 to 9.50 and the draw lengthened from 4.33 to 5.00. Every part of the market moved in the same direction: money came for the away side, and both alternatives became less popular. That is a cleaner signal than many dropping-odds games, where the headline move sits on a different outcome from the pick.
The numbers behind it are easy to follow. HJK beat VPS 6-0 on October 8, already 3-0 up at half-time. They have scored in every one of their last five matches and won four of them. VPS, by contrast, have scored only once in their last four games.
Recent form and half-time scores
The last-five lists below cover all competitions, not only the league.
| Match | HT | FT |
|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu vs VPS | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| VPS vs Inter Turku | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Kuopion Palloseura vs VPS | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| VPS vs IF Gnistan | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| HJK vs VPS | 3-0 | 6-0 |
| Inter Turku vs HJK | 1-2 | 2-4 |
| HJK vs Kuopion Palloseura | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| HJK vs IF Gnistan | 0-0 | 4-0 |
| AC Oulu vs HJK | 0-2 | 3-4 |
| HJK vs VPS | 3-0 | 6-0 |
HJK scored 20 goals in these five matches and conceded seven. They won 4-2 at Inter Turku and 4-3 at AC Oulu, so even their away games have been high-scoring. Two results show they can be slow starters: the 4-0 win over IF Gnistan and the 2-2 draw with Kuopion Palloseura were both goalless at half-time. VPS drew 0-0 at AC Oulu, lost 0-1 at home to Inter Turku and 0-2 at Kuopion Palloseura, and their only win in this run was a 1-0 home victory over IF Gnistan. One goal scored and nine conceded across five matches is a worrying return for a side that needs to score to get anything here.
