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Both of these sides arrive in good domestic form, and neither has been in the habit of sharing the points lately. FC Midtjylland have turned several tight games into wins, while AFC Ajax have been scoring freely. The question for this preview is less about who is stronger and more about whether either side will settle for a draw.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Dropping Odds picks. If you want to see which games are drawing the most attention overall, our Hot Games page collects them in one place.
| Record | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland overall | 25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1 |
| AFC Ajax overall | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3-2 | 3 |
| FC Midtjylland home | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0 |
| AFC Ajax away | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0 |
After two rounds of the competition, AFC Ajax are 13th with three points from one win and one defeat, scoring three and conceding two. Their only home game was a 2-0 win, and their only away game a 2-1 defeat. FC Midtjylland are 25th with one point from a draw and a defeat, with goals of 1-2. They lost their only home game 0-1 and drew their only away game 1-1.
Why we back 12 - Double Chance
This bet wins if either team wins in regular time. Only a draw loses it, whatever the score.
How the 1X2 odds moved
| Reading | 1 (FC Midtjylland) | X (Draw) | 2 (AFC Ajax) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Latest | 2.61 | 3.68 | 2.43 |
It is worth being precise about which price moved. The big drop was on the FC Midtjylland home win, which shortened from 3.30 to 2.61. AFC Ajax drifted from 2.00 to 2.43, and the draw drifted slightly from 3.50 to 3.68. The 12 price itself barely changed, because money moving from one winner to the other largely cancels out. What matters for this pick is that the draw went out rather than in, while the market moved from a clear Ajax lean towards a more even contest.
The form supports the no-draw view. Across the last five games of each team, all ten matches produced a winner. FC Midtjylland won four and lost one, and AFC Ajax won four and lost one.
Recent form and half-time scores
The last five matches below cover all competitions.
| Match | HT | FT |
|---|---|---|
| FC Nordsjælland vs FC Midtjylland | 2-0 | 2-3 |
| FC Midtjylland vs Odense Boldklub | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truidense VV | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Viborg FF vs FC Midtjylland | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| AFC Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Sparta Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| AFC Ajax vs Atalanta | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| FC Groningen vs AFC Ajax | 0-2 | 2-5 |
| HNK Hajduk Split vs AFC Ajax | 1-0 | 2-1 |
FC Midtjylland scored ten and conceded seven in these five games. The standout result came away at FC Nordsjælland, where they trailed 2-0 at half-time and won 3-2. They also beat Odense Boldklub 2-1, Lyngby 3-2 and Viborg FF 2-1, all by a single goal, and lost 0-1 at home to Sint-Truidense VV. AFC Ajax scored eleven and conceded five. They beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0, Sparta Rotterdam 2-1, Atalanta 2-0 after a goalless first half and FC Groningen 5-2, and lost 2-1 away at HNK Hajduk Split.
