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One of these sides has a perfect record in the competition so far, while the other is still looking for its first win. Liverpool FC arrive with plenty of goals in their recent games, and Fenerbahçe have struggled to hold on to leads. On paper the gap is wide, but recent results on both sides add some twists.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Dropping Odds picks. If you want to see which matches are drawing the most attention across the board, our Hot Games page collects them in one place.
| Competition record | Pos | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe overall | 31 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-9 | 2 |
| Liverpool FC overall | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12-7 | 9 |
| Fenerbahçe at home | 29 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 2 |
| Liverpool FC away | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6-3 | 3 |
After three rounds Liverpool FC are fourth in the competition table with nine points from three wins, scoring 12 and conceding seven. Fenerbahçe are 31st with two points from two draws and one defeat, and a goal record of 3-9. Both of Fenerbahçe's draws came at home, where they have scored three and conceded three; their only away game ended in a 0-6 defeat. Liverpool won their only away game in the competition 6-3, and both of their home games as well.
Why we back Liverpool FC (Away team win)
This bet wins only if Liverpool FC win in regular time. A draw or a Fenerbahçe win loses.
How the 1X2 odds moved
| Reading | 1 (Fenerbahçe) | X (Draw) | 2 (Liverpool FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 3.80 | 3.80 | 1.83 |
| Latest | 6.25 | 5.25 | 1.44 |
Here the drop is on the price we are backing. Liverpool FC shortened from 1.83 to 1.44, while the home win drifted from 3.80 to 6.25 and the draw lengthened from 3.80 to 5.25. All three prices moved in the same direction: money came for the away side, and both alternatives became less popular. That is a very clear market signal.
The numbers support it. Liverpool have won all three games in the competition and four of their last five overall, while Fenerbahçe have won only one of their last five and have not won any of their three games in this competition.
Recent form and half-time scores
The last-five lists below cover all competitions, not only this one.
| Match | HT | FT |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Fenerbahçe vs SK Slavia Praha | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor | 1-0 | 3-0 |
| Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe | 3-0 | 6-0 |
| Liverpool FC vs Arsenal | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Liverpool FC vs Chelsea | 1-1 | 7-6 |
| Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Liverpool FC vs Villarreal | 2-2 | 4-3 |
| Brentford vs Liverpool FC | 1-0 | 1-2 |
Fenerbahçe scored seven and conceded 12 in these five matches. Their only win was 3-0 at home to Alanyaspor, and the pattern in the other home games is worrying: they led Göztepe 1-0 at half-time and lost 1-2, and they led SK Slavia Praha 2-1 at the break before drawing 2-2. They were also 0-2 down at half-time against Galatasaray and lost 6-0 at Aston Villa after trailing 0-3 at the break. Liverpool FC scored 15 and conceded 11 in their five. They won 7-6 against Chelsea, 4-3 against Villarreal and 2-0 against Brighton & Hove Albion, and came from 0-1 down at half-time to win 2-1 at Brentford. The last game was a 0-1 home defeat to Arsenal.
