Português 
Italiano 
Ελληνικά 
Polski 
Français 
Русский 
Balkanski 
Türkçe 
Español 
Deutsch 
Scotland and North Macedonia have already met once in this group, when Scotland won 2-0 away on 3 October. Since then Scotland lost 1-2 at home to Slovenia, while North Macedonia were beaten 3-0 in Switzerland. The last-five lists also include earlier games against Brazil and Türkiye, so they mix this competition with other fixtures.
Match context
This fixture is one of our free Hot Games picks. The model leans toward the hosts on the 1X2 line: 54% for a Scotland win, 22% for a draw and 24% for North Macedonia, out of 100%. Those figures describe the likely winner, not the goal total, and a Scotland win can still stay under this line, as the October 2-0 already did.
In this competition both sides have played four games, and all eight stayed under 3.5 goals. Scotland's two home matches in that sample were a 1-2 defeat to Slovenia and a 0-3 defeat to Switzerland, both already at three goals. Their two away games were the 0-2 win in North Macedonia and a 0-0 in Slovenia. North Macedonia's four games also stayed under: 3-0 and 0-3 against Switzerland, 2-0 in Slovenia and the 0-2 home defeat to Scotland.
Why the model expects fewer than four goals
The pick is Under 3.5 goals. It wins if the match produces three goals or fewer in regular time, whoever scores them. Results such as 1-0, 2-1, 3-0 or 0-0 all land; it loses with four or more, including 2-2, 3-1 or 4-0.
The season totals in this competition are the strongest support. Scotland went under 3.5 in all four games, including both home fixtures, and North Macedonia did the same in all four of theirs, including both away trips. Two of Scotland's four games had three goals, and two of North Macedonia's four did as well, so the line was tested but not broken. Both teams scored in only one of Scotland's four games, and in none of North Macedonia's four.
The first-half numbers point the same way. None of Scotland's four opening halves had more than one goal, and only one of North Macedonia's four did. That does not settle the full-time total on its own, but it helps explain why these matches have tended to stay below four.
Recent form and half-time scores
The last five matches below cover all competitions, newest first. Four of each list belong to this group. Scotland's 0-3 defeat to Brazil and North Macedonia's 4-0 defeat in Türkiye came earlier, in June.
| Team | Match | HT | FT | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Scotland – Slovenia | 1-0 | 1-2 | Yes |
| Scotland | North Macedonia – Scotland | 0-1 | 0-2 | Yes |
| Scotland | Scotland – Switzerland | 0-1 | 0-3 | Yes |
| Scotland | Slovenia – Scotland | 0-0 | 0-0 | Yes |
| Scotland | Scotland – Brazil | 0-2 | 0-3 | Yes |
| North Macedonia | Switzerland – North Macedonia | 1-0 | 3-0 | Yes |
| North Macedonia | North Macedonia – Scotland | 0-1 | 0-2 | Yes |
| North Macedonia | Slovenia – North Macedonia | 0-0 | 2-0 | Yes |
| North Macedonia | North Macedonia – Switzerland | 0-2 | 0-3 | Yes |
| North Macedonia | Türkiye – North Macedonia | 2-0 | 4-0 | No |
Nine of the ten matches above finished with three goals or fewer. The only exception is North Macedonia's 0-4 defeat in Türkiye. Scotland's five were a 1-2 home defeat to Slovenia, a 0-2 win in North Macedonia, a 0-3 home defeat to Switzerland, a 0-0 in Slovenia and a 0-3 defeat to Brazil. North Macedonia's other four were a 3-0 defeat in Switzerland, the 0-2 home defeat to Scotland, a 2-0 defeat in Slovenia and a 0-3 home defeat to Switzerland.
North Macedonia did not score in any of those five games. Scotland scored more than once only in the meeting already played, the 2-0 win in October.
